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What does the positivity rate of COVID testing really tell us? Why is this rate for Maryland different depending on the data source?
The positivity rate was a good way of communicating the burden of disease in the population when we have limitations in wide-scale diagnostic testing. Now that we have improved availability of testing, I favor looking at the local burden of COVID by the number of cases per 100,000 people in the population—this would not be a good estimate when we have few tests being performed. The Maryland Department of Health’s dashboard allows for you to look at the case rates by 100K in each county. In many successful countries, these rates are below 5 cases/100K (many are below 1 case/100K). The state-wide average in Maryland came close to 5 cases/100K in late June before rising again.
